Fair odds preview, Performance of Odds Wizard

Partners of Newhaven Software & Odds Wizard

Affiliate programme for Odds Wizard, link exchange

Fair odds preview for some leagues

Note! The above fair odds have been generated by Odds Wizard software. Now it supports as many as 84 Internet-updatable leagues.

Explanation of fair odds

There are two kinds of odds: line (market) odds, offered by a bookmaker, and fair odds, presented in this page. Fair odds equalize opportunities of a bookmaker to have a profit, and a bettor to win. In decimal notation, they are equal to the inverse value of probability. Synonyms are true odds, refined odds. Line odds are based on the betting volume, and reflect subjective expectations of thousands of bettors worldwide. Bookmakers should set the line odds less than corresponding fair odds as long as they want to have a profit in the long run. Lucky bettor finds those line odds that are greater than fair odds. The latter may have place e.g. due to the bookie's mistake.

Warning for serious bettors

Serious bettors must be aware that they are doomed to waste 10-20% of their bankroll in the long run if bookmaker's line odds are less than fair odds. The bookie's mistake can make the line odds greater than fair odds. Therefore only pairs line > fair can be considered worth for betting.

Making betting decision

Making betting decision is a complex task. What pair of line/fair odds is preferable for effective betting? What bet for example is better: A=1.3/1.2 or B=1.7/1.5 ? The answer is none of them but the complex bet A + B + AB! There is no simple expression to calculate even 3-component bet, and we recommend to delegate such work to the Stake Wizard 4 powerful tool, integrated in Odds Wizard software.

Performance of Odds Wizard (statistics)

Statistics pages reflect both performance of Odds Wizard (i.e. its prediction strength) and predictability of a chosen league.

First table represents a summary of performance/predictability. Exact meaning of its columns:

Actual number of games Number of home wins (n₁), draws (n_X), away wins (n₂), and total games (N=n₁+n_X+n₂) within analyzed period
Relative rate, % Ratios 100*n₁/N, 100*n_X/N, 100*n₂/N, and their sum = 100%
Sum of computed probs Sum of computed probabilities for each game to be: home win (p₁), draw (p_X), away win (p₂), and their sum p_N = p₁+p_X+p₂ = N
Relative rate, % Ratios 100*p₁/p_N, 100*p_X/p_N, 100*p₂/p_N, and their sum = 100%
Successful computed probs Sum of successfully computed probabilities for home wins (s₁), draws (s_X), away wins, and their sum s_N = s₁+s_X+s₂
Success rate, % Ratios 100*s₁/p₁, 100*s_X/p_X, 100*s₂/p₂, and their sum (PP)

The last sum of success rates PP = 100*s₁/p₁+100*s_X/p_X+100*s₂/p₂ is considered an integral performance/predictability index. It is highlighted by bold font.

Note! The contents of the above table can be reproduced within Odds Wizard software (menu Tools -> Performance analysis).

Second table shows how many wins or wins+draws (number and %) had actually taken place at various levels of computed probabilities for home (away) wins for those events. For example, the line

  Computed                  Success  Wins+  Success
probabilities, Games  Wins   rate,   draws   rate,
   %, >=                       %               %

     85         305    277    90,8    300     98,4

indicates that in 305 games computed probabilities for the home wins (1) were equal or greater than 85%, and there were 277 successfully predicted home wins (1), and 300 successfully predicted home wins+draws (1X).